2022 News & Events

GML and CSL authors receive the 2021 NOAA OAR Outstanding Scientific Paper Award in the category of Climate.

This selected paper announced the first substantial violation of the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. It furthermore demonstrated that a portion of this violation arose in eastern Asia. These conclusions were drawn from the detection of very small changes in the rate of change, distribution, and variability in atmospheric concentrations of CFC-11 precisely measured at multiple sites across the globe. These changes pointed to increased emissions of a major ozone-depleting chemical that had been banned from use since 2010.

Since this paper was published, substantial follow-up and scientific work has been initiated, including studies to investigate the implications for ozone layer recovery, and to search for evidence of other violations of the Protocol. While the substantial citation metrics reflect the magnitude of follow-up studies and discussions, it is also worth pointing out that the two main advisory panels of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol convened scientific meetings in Vienna devoted entirely to the findings of this paper and have or will publish major reports describing the causes and impacts of the illicit CFC-11 production and emission. China also held an international workshop on the issue in Beijing in March of 2019, and has devised a multipoint plan to ensure rapid resolution of the CFC-11 issue and improve/develop their own capabilities for detecting illicit activities in future.

The findings of the paper are directly relevant to the NOAA mission "To understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coasts" as applied research because they relate to characterizing and understanding unexpected changes in atmospheric composition that are relevant to climate, given that CFC-11 and stratospheric ozone are greenhouse gases. The results are also important to the ocean as ozone depletion increases the flux of harmful UV radiation to the oceanic biosphere. The findings enable better predictions of future UV exposure and climate as they refine our understanding of future trajectories for both CFC-11 and stratospheric ozone given the apparent lack of compliance with the Montreal Protocol.

Another important component of NOAA's mission is "To share that knowledge and information with others." Because of the global interest in the issue of ozone depletion and the Montreal Protocol, a substantial associated communication effort was made by the authors to share the results with multiple stakeholders both nationally and internationally, including the public, fellow scientists, industry experts, representatives from other U.S. government agencies (Department of State, U.S. EPA, Department of Agriculture, U.S. Congressional staff), and the Parties to the Montreal Protocol (representatives of all nations of the world).

The paper is recognized by Craig McLean, NOAA OAR Assistant Administrator, and Gary Matlock, NOAA OAR Deputy Assistant Administrator for Science, at the NOAA Outstanding Scientific Paper Awards virtual seminar held on March 14.